Greggs has entered the second full financial year of its five-year growth plan having exceeded our initial FY22 revenue estimates, helped by elevated external inflationary pressures, and with profit in line with management’s expectations. Despite the more challenging external environment, Greggs made good progress with the majority of its revenue growth initiatives in FY22. Following the expected normalisation of the cost base, which hampered profit growth in FY22, we forecast more consistent pre-tax profit growth in FY23–25 (three-year CAGR of 11%) relative to sales growth (12% CAGR).