Lowering FY25-27 estimates by 7-9% We update our Greggs model following its recent H1’25 trading update and ahead of the full H1 results on 29 July. We now assume Group FY25 EBIT of £191m, down 2.5% yoy and compared to the Group’s most recent guidance that FY25 EBIT “could be lower than the prior year”. It is -7% vs. our previous estimate largely due to lower LFLs and the effect it has on operating leverage and cost inflation recovery (+6% guided for the year). While the recent LFL softness has been attributed to macro and weather-related factors, it is unclear if there are no other structural factors at play. As such, we have also lowered FY26-28 estimates by c.8-9% to take a more conservative view on the pace of recovery. H1 trading softened at period end with PBT likely to be c-16% yoy In its H1 trading update, Greggs noted LFLs had softened in June (after a brief improvement in April-May) with hot weather blamed for the weakness. Overall, H1 LFLs are expected to be +2.6% though this likely slowed to c.+1% in June. With pricing of +c.5% taken in the period, this implies volumes were c.-4% in June. Beyond company-managed LFLs, the statement also noted that H1 profit would be down yoy reflecting a strong PY comp and phasing of refurbs and cost recovery initiatives – we model H1’25 EBIT and PBT -11% and -16% respectively. Stay neutral given lack of visibility on 2–3-year profit outlook We moved to HOLD on Greggs earlier this year as slowing LFLs and capacity-related gross opex headwinds meant the near-term growth outlook was less clear. We retain that neutral stance with these dual challenges continuing, balanced against the Group’s still attractive mid-term growth potential and a valuation that looks undemanding vs history (13x P/E vs. 20x 5-year average) albeit not deep-value in absolute terms.