Estimates bake in a small improvement in Q4 Greggs reports its Q4’25 trading on Thursday, 8th January. Against a soft prior year comparative (Q4'24 +2.5% vs. 9m'24 +6.5%), VA consensus for FY25 company-managed LFLs of +2.5% implies a modest improvement in Q4’25 of +3.1% vs. +2.2% achieved in the first 9 months. We sit at +2.7% for the FY or +4.1% for Q4. Company guidance is ‘‘FY25 EBIT could be modestly below FY24”, with a material step-up in finance costs (lower net cash & more lease liabilities). This implies a bigger decline in adj PBT. VA consensus models FY25 EBIT of £187m (-4% yoy, GBYe £189m) and adj. PBT £173.8m (-8% yoy, GBYe £176m). Focus on LFL trading and 2025 PBT outcome Given the share price decline in 2025, an in-line PBT outcome may provide some relief though we expect a lot of focus will also be on the Q4 LFL performance as a guide for momentum into this year. While the budget was possibly less bad than feared and the certainty post the event should help trading through 2026, the past 3 months have been a tough for UK hospitality. This is illustrated in deteriorating ONS UK Retail sales and Barclaycard data in October and November due to ongoing cost of living pressures and poor weather. Fragile consumer backdrop and recent rebound means we stay Neutral From its nadir in late Nov-25, GRG shares are +24% likely reflecting an element of a short squeeze following more positive views on the mid-term outlook for the business. Despite this rebound, the stock was still -39% for the year in 2025 and continues to trade on an cal.26 P/E of 13.3x (vs. 20x 5 year average). While we also remain positive on the mid-term prospects for the business, we are not sure the upcoming Q4 update will prove the catalyst for shares with the UK consumer backdrop still too fragile for us to be incrementally positive at current levels.