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29 Jul 2025
Greggs : 1H25 results reflect slower sales - Buy

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Greggs : 1H25 results reflect slower sales - Buy
Greggs plc (GRG:LON) | 1,579 -205.3 (-0.8%) | Mkt Cap: 1,615m
- Published:
29 Jul 2025 -
Author:
Kate Calvert -
Pages:
8 -
1H results in-line / slightly better than early July’s updated guidance, though there wasn’t a comprehensive 1H consensus. Reported 1H PBT was down 14% to £63.5m, with EBIT down 7% to £70.4m versus INVe £65.3m (consensus c.£67m). The decline reflected weak 1H revenues due to challenging footfall, more weather disruption YoY, and phasing of cost headwinds from the bias in store refurbishments to 1H and the annualisation of increased supply chain costs from Balliol’s capacity increase in 2H24.
No change to consensus FY25 PBT of £174m expected. Management reiterated previous guidance that FY25 EBIT could now be modestly below FY24, with cost of weaker sales mainly impacting 1H. It still plans to add a net 140-150 openings in FY25. No change to 6% cost inflation expectations.
New Tesco contract signed, which will see its ‘Bake at Home’ range on offer from September. This builds on its Iceland success.
Good strategic momentum ongoing. Evening, the fastest-growing daypart, is now 9.3% of company-managed shop sales (1H24 9.4%). Valuable data is being collected via the Greggs app, which is scanned in 25.7% of company-managed shop transactions (1H24 18.3%). Delivery revenues are accounting for 6.8% of company-managed stores (1H24 6.7%). It maintained its Number 1 breakfast market share and also Number 2 in coffee.
Undemanding valuation (CY26E PE of 12.2x; DPS yield 4.1%), trading at the bottom of its last 10 years’ forward PE valuation range, Weaker short-term trading is weighing on the share price. 2H comps get easier, with a return to positive LFL volume growth needed to restore confidence in the longer-term growth story and drive a re-rating, we believe.