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01 Oct 2024
Greggs : 3Q24 – on track for FY consensus - Buy

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Greggs : 3Q24 – on track for FY consensus - Buy
Greggs plc (GRG:LON) | 1,826 36.5 0.1% | Mkt Cap: 1,867m
- Published:
01 Oct 2024 -
Author:
Ben Hunt, CFA | Kate Calvert -
Pages:
7 -
Another solid quarter. For the 13 weeks to 28th September, Q3 total sales were up 10.6% (1H +13.8%) with company-managed store LFLs up 5% (1H+7.4%). This was mostly price with volumes flat YoY. The LFL exit rate was higher with September the strongest month of the quarter, helped by menu development and further progress in extending trading hours and digital. YTD total sales were up 12.7%, with CM LFL +6.5%.
No change to the Board’s FY24 expectations with company-compiled consensus FY24 PBT of £186m unlikely to move materially. Comps get tougher as Greggs passes the anniversary of the Uber delivery launch around now. Management still expects to open a net 140-160 net stores in 2004 (net 86 opened YTD) and now guides to overall cost inflation towards the lower end of the 4%-5% range previously guided.
Supply chain investment on track. The Birmingham distribution centre redevelopment and Amesbury extension have been completed, adding capacity for c300 additional stores in the Southern region. Construction of a new frozen product manufacturing and logistics facility in Derby is progressing as expected, with the lease due to be signed in Q4 and the facility fully open in 2026. Planning application has been submitted for Kettering, a new chilled and ambient NDC, which is due to open in 2027.
Upgrade FY24E/FY25E PBT by 1.3%/1.5%, driven by higher sales and lower costs assumptions, moving us to just below consensus. This conservatively implies 11% sales growth and 6.3% PBT growth in 2H. With material cost headwinds continuing to lessen, Greggs’ longer-term growth potential and valuation appear underpinned by new space opportunities, proposition development and moving into new channels. Reiterate BUY.