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07 Mar 2023
Greggs : A good start to 2023 - Buy

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Greggs : A good start to 2023 - Buy
Greggs plc (GRG:LON) | 1,594 271.1 1.1% | Mkt Cap: 1,630m
- Published:
07 Mar 2023 -
Author:
Ben Hunt, CFA | Kate Calvert -
Pages:
7 -
FY22 PBT was a touch a head of our expectations at £148.3m (+1.9% YoY). This implies H2 PBT of £92.5m, +2.7% YoY (H1: +0.5% YoY), with H2 EBIT margins -207bps YoY (H1: -238bps YoY) driven by cost inflation. As pre-reported, full-year total sales were +23% YoY, with company-managed store LFLs of +17.8% YoY (Q1: +36.9% YoY, Q2: +11.2% YoY, Q3: +9.7% YoY, Q4: +18.2% YoY) with Q1’s performance buoyed by soft comparatives, following lockdown restrictions in 2021. Pre-reported net cash is £191m, reflecting phasing of capex investment.
Strategic progress: The early-evening daypart (in 500 stores) remains the fastest growing daypart and management now plans to extend opening hours in 300 shops to 9pm, as well as trialling 24-hour drive-thru shops. Elsewhere, delivery volumes have been normalising to c. 5% of sales but management believes the longer-term opportunity remains intact - Click + Collect will be a key focus in 2023. The Greggs App is also helping Greggs to personalise its engagement with customers, which is seeing strong growth with 1.1m active customers in Q4 (LY: 0.4m) helping to drive brand health and market share.
Supply chain: Mgmt will look to redevelop distribution centres in Birmingham and Amesbury in 2023 to add capacity to the network by the end of 2024. Further investment in the Midlands area will follow across 2024 to 2026, with a national distribution centre and a manufacturing and frozen storage facility.
Outlook: For the first 9 weeks of the year, LfLs are +18.8% YoY - we estimate an acceleration on Q4 2022’s pre-pandemic run-rate. Overall, cost inflation this year is still expected to be between 9-10%, but visibility is improving with management securing forward cover for all electricity requirements up to the end of Q3, giving management the chance to benefit from lower prices should opportunities present themselves. Elsewhere, management also has forward purchased four and five months on food and packaging, respectively.