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05 Mar 2024
Greggs : A promising start to the new year - Buy
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Greggs : A promising start to the new year - Buy
Greggs plc (GRG:LON) | 1,634 -490.2 (-1.8%) | Mkt Cap: 1,671m
- Published:
05 Mar 2024 -
Author:
Ben Hunt, CFA | Kate Calvert -
Pages:
6 -
FY23 PBT was a touch ahead of our expectations at £167.7m (+13% YoY) implying H2 PBT was +12.8% YoY (H1: +14.2% YoY). H2 EBIT margins were -62bps YoY (H1: -75bps YoY) as cost inflation impacted all areas of the P&L. As pre-reported, full-year total sales were +19.6% YoY, with company-managed (“C-M”) store LFLs of +13.7% YoY. Pre-reported net cash is £195m, reflecting the settlement of two insurance claims and rephasing of tax payments. A 40p special dividend has also been declared.
Strategic progress: Market share has progressed over the year and is at an all-time high. Evening trade (sales post-4pm) continues to progress and was 8.7% of C-M shop sales during H2 (Q3 FY23: 8.8%, H2 FY22: 7.4%) implying YoY H2 growth of c. +40%. In the meantime, Greggs App participation in Q4 is now as high as 15% of C-M transactions (versus Q3 FY23: 13.2%, H1 FY23: 10.6%). On this basis Q4 App transactions have likely doubled YoY. We continue to argue that Greggs App customers are highly valuable – see aforementioned research note. Elsewhere, Uber Eats is now available in 930 shops, meaning a total of 1,440 shops offer a delivery service (across both Just Eat and Uber Eats). Delivery sales are therefore up 23.6% YoY.
Supply chain: A fourth production line has been installed at Balliol Park, which will provide additional manufacturing capacity, while extra logistics capacity is being expanded at the Birmingham and Amesbury distribution centres. Two new state-of-the-art facilities are also planned, with one site secured in Derby and second site planned for the Kettering/Corby area.
Outlook: For the first 9 weeks of the year, LfLs are +8.2% YoY (InvE FY24E: +5%) while overall cost inflation is still expected to range between 4-5%. 80% of energy requirements are now fixed for the year (50% in FY25) and management has 4 months of forward cover on food and packaging costs.