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16 May 2022
Greggs : A reassuring Q1 update - Buy
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Greggs : A reassuring Q1 update - Buy
Greggs plc (GRG:LON) | 1,569 0 0.0% | Mkt Cap: 1,604m
- Published:
16 May 2022 -
Author:
Ben Hunt, CFA | Kate Calvert -
Pages:
6 -
Trading is in line, with LfLs up +27.4%YoY for the first 19 weeks, having been +44%YoY for the first 9 weeks, flattered by comparison with restricted trading conditions in the same period last year. In the subsequent 10-week period to 14th May, LfLs have averaged +15.8%YoY, with the exit rate approaching more normalised levels. As expected, trading in larger cities and in office locations continues to lag the performance of the rest of the estate, but transport locations have shown a marked increase in activity in recent weeks. Sales of hot food and snacks are showing particularly strong growth.
Store openings are comfortably on track for a net 150 openings this year, with management having accelerated its store roll out programme - as outlined at its recent CMD. To date, openings total 49 new shops in the period, which included 18 with franchise partners. Openings include locations in a number of retail parks and new travel-based units at Birmingham and Liverpool airports.
Outlook: While trading performance is in line and the pipeline for new store openings is strong, management remains mindful of market wide cost pressures, which have been increasing. By way of reference, at the Finals in March, management expected LfL costs to increase between 6% and 7% this year, while FY22 also loses the £15m benefit from business rates relief last year. Nevertheless, management has options to mitigate cost headwinds, from efficiencies and implementing price increases. We note that Q1’s price hikes have not been detrimental to demand and management remains comfortable with the overall competitive environment.
Forecasts unchanged: Despite rising cost pressures we continue to expect PBT to be broadly flat this year, which assumes LfL sales growth of just 8% YoY in FY22, implying a conservative LfL growth profile for the remainder of the year. Maintain Buy.