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14 May 2024
Greggs : A solid start - Buy

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Greggs : A solid start - Buy
Greggs plc (GRG:LON) | 1,601 384.2 1.5% | Mkt Cap: 1,637m
- Published:
14 May 2024 -
Author:
Ben Hunt, CFA | Kate Calvert -
Pages:
6 -
Momentum has been solid, with LfLs up +7.4% for the first 19 weeks. Therefore, with LfLs at +8.2% for the first 9 weeks of the trading period, we estimate that growth moderated to a touch below 7% for the remaining 10 weeks of the period (to 11th May). We understand LfLs have, again, been driven by a combination of delivery sales, evening trade (which remains the fastest growing day part), and increased participation in the Greggs App.
Strong start to store openings this year with 64 new shops opened in the period, which included 15 with franchise partners. We note that four company-managed shops were with Tesco and three with Sainsbury’s. The pipeline for the remainder of the year is said to be ‘strong’ - with further opportunities with supermarket groups.
Supply chain development: Meanwhile investment projects at the Birmingham and Amesbury distribution centres are running to plan and the fourth production line at Balliol Park has now been commissioned. As previously communicated, management has now entered into a lease agreement on a site at Derby - which will increase manufacturing capacity needs and support logistics network capacity - while negotiations on the purchase of land in the Corby/Kettering area are also progressing well. These latter initiatives will become operational in 2026/27.
Forecasts and outlook: Cost inflation expectations remain unchanged, with management expecting LfL costs to increase by c. 4-5% We leave our forecasts unchanged; these assume LfL growth of +5% this year, implying LfLs need only average c.+3.5% for the remainder of the year. We therefore expect 7% PBT growth in FY24E, driven by a combination of store openings and LfL sales growth from the development of new channels - see our note: Opening up to new growth (37 pages).