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16 May 2023
Greggs : A strong start to the year - Buy

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Greggs : A strong start to the year - Buy
Greggs plc (GRG:LON) | 1,583 -411.6 (-1.6%) | Mkt Cap: 1,619m
- Published:
16 May 2023 -
Author:
Ben Hunt, CFA | Kate Calvert -
Pages:
6 -
Momentum continues, with LfLs up +17.1%YoY for the first 19 weeks - in part reflecting the impact of Omicron in early FY22. Therefore, LfLs were +18.8%YoY for the first 9 weeks of the trading period, moderating to +15.7% YoY for the remaining 10-weeks of the period (to 13th May), with management expecting more normalised levels going forward, as actions taken against inflation in 2022 start to annualise.
Menu development: Pleasingly, hot food and snacks (e.g., chicken goujons and wedges) are showing particularly strong growth while Pizza is also proving popular, driving sales in the evening daypart.
Strong start to store openings this year with 63 new shops opened in the period, which included 25 with franchise partners. Recent shop openings have included sites at Canary Wharf Station and at Glasgow and Cardiff airports. Management believes the pipeline for new openings this year is strong. In the meantime, investment projects at Birmingham and Amesbury distribution centres are underway and will deliver additional logistics capacity for further shop openings in second half of 2024, as previously communicated.
Outlook: Management’s outlook is confident, albeit mindful of the challenging economic environment. Cost inflation expectations remain unchanged with management expecting LfL costs to increase between 9% and 10% YoY although forward cover on key commodities is improving.
We leave our forecasts unchanged. These assume LfL growth of +11% YoY this year, implying LfLs need only average c.+7.5% YoY for the remainder of the year. As such, we assume PBT growth of c.10% YoY this year, which is driven by a combination of store openings and LfL sales growth from the development of new channels (Evening day-part, Click & Collect, Delivery).