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09 Jan 2025
Greggs : Another milestone passed - Buy

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Greggs : Another milestone passed - Buy
Greggs plc (GRG:LON) | 1,620 340.3 1.3% | Mkt Cap: 1,657m
- Published:
09 Jan 2025 -
Author:
Kate Calvert -
Pages:
7 -
FY24 was another good year of progress with the full year profit outcome expected to in-line with the Board’s previous expectations. Therefore, we expect no change to company-compiled PBT consensus of £188m. The £2bn sales milestone was surpassed for the first time. FY24 total sales grew 11.3% to £2,014m. Company-managed LFL sales were +5.5% (INVe +5.5%). A record 226 stores were opened, or a net 145 new stores adjusting for closures/relocations, in-line with 140-160 guidance.
A slower end to the year was expected, given tougher comps YoY as the business passed the Uber Eats launch anniversary. However, the Q4 slowdown was more pronounced than expected reflecting more subdued footfall generally. Q4 company-managed shop LFL sales grew 2.5% (3Q +5% and 1H24 +7.4%). In hindsight, the slowdown probably started in the summer, when consumer sentiment weakened, with September’s better performance misleading.
Year-end net cash of £125m was better than expected (INVe £76m) with a £25m timing benefit from the Kettering land purchase falling into FY25 rather than FY24. Our cashflow forecast has been adjusted for this.
Investment plans on track with another 140-150 net stores planned for FY25. Good progress was made on the planned supply chain developments. Derby’s lease (due to open in 2026) was signed in November. Kettering (due to open mid-2027) planning application was approved & land purchased.
No change to FY24E/FY25E PBT forecast with further profit progression forecast in FY25E. Our FY25E PBT forecast of £197.4m (consensus £201.5m) is based on total sales up 7.6% with company-managed store LFL +3%...
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