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29 Sep 2020
Greggs : Delivering in new channels - Buy

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Greggs : Delivering in new channels - Buy
Greggs plc (GRG:LON) | 1,594 286.9 1.1% | Mkt Cap: 1,630m
- Published:
29 Sep 2020 -
Author:
Ben Hunt, CFA | Kate Calvert -
Pages:
6 -
Q3 trading, 12 weeks to 26th September: saw company-managed LfLs at 71.2% of last year, with sales in August negatively impacted by the closure of seated areas, hot weather and demand pulled towards venues offering “Eat Out To Help Out”. However, with out-of-home activity improving in September, LfLs were at 76.1% of 2019 levels. Going forward, management now intends to broaden its product ranges and re-open 100 seated areas
Digital offer ramps up: with “Click & Collect” now available in all stores while the roll-out of delivery is progressing well and now represented as much as 2.6% of company-managed sales in the most recent week. We note in the unlikely event of a further nationwide lockdown, stores would be able to benefit from the development of new service channels where they couldn’t before.
Store roll-out reactivated, with a net 20 store openings now planned this year, predominately in areas that can be accessed by car. Year to date, 11 net stores have closed (38 openings, 49 closures). Elsewhere, having reintroduced more products into stores, all manufacturing operations have reopened despite two recent outbreaks of COVID-19 in Greggs’ distribution and manufacturing facilities. In the meantime, good progress has been made towards the construction of the new automated frozen logistics facility.
Outlook & forecasts: the outlook remains uncertain with potential for further social restrictions being imposed and supply chain disruption. We make no changes to forecasts which assume LfLs are at 75% of FY19 levels in H2. With the Job Retention Scheme planned to end in October, management intends to focus on reducing staff store hours in order to match costs with lower levels of foreseeable demand. We continue to assume that sales recover to 90% of FY19 levels in FY21E and 95% in FY22E. Pleasingly, the company has already returned to a net cash positive position in September. (INVe FY20E net debt: £41m).