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16 Mar 2021
Greggs : Delivering more than results - Buy

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Greggs : Delivering more than results - Buy
Greggs plc (GRG:LON) | 1,594 271.1 1.1% | Mkt Cap: 1,630m
- Published:
16 Mar 2021 -
Author:
Ben Hunt, CFA | Kate Calvert -
Pages:
7 -
FY20 LBT of £13.7m was a touch ahead of our estimate (INVe FY20E LBT: £14.8m) owing to a slightly better cost performance. This implies H2 PBT was £51.5m (INVe: £50.4m). As pre-reported, full-year total sales were -30.5% with company-managed store LFLs of -36.2% (H1 -49.0%) owing to lockdown restrictions impacting trade. Year-end net cash was £36.8m, in line with expectations.
Management galvanised by crisis; with Click & Collect rolled out across the entire estate and delivery now available in 600 stores (800 expected for 2021). Management continues to believe the addition of new digital channels is helping to extend its reach to new customers and accelerate development in new product areas - given lower maturity costs in gaining customer support for products.
Radical changes to distribution operation, as a result of the pandemic, have also created additional capacity while potentially lowering distribution costs. As a consequence, the proposed investment into the Birmingham site – scheduled to open in 2021 - can be now be postponed for a number of years.
100 net new store openings still expected this year, while management also sees new opportunities to open new stores in central London and mass transport hubs, where lower rents are making locations more attractive. In the meantime, capex in the coming years will re-accelerate to address supply chain capacity and meet growth opportunities. Thus management expect capital expenditure of c.£90m in FY22 (FY23: £100m).
LfLs in current trading (10 weeks to13th March) are -28.8%. Outside of Scotland - where stores are temporarily closed - LfLs are -22.4% with trading improving throughout the period. Pleasingly, delivery sales to date have been particularly strong at 9.6% of sales (Q4 FY20: 5.5%)
Forecast changes: See details overleaf.