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01 Aug 2023
Greggs : En route to £2.4bn - Buy

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Greggs : En route to £2.4bn - Buy
Greggs plc (GRG:LON) | 1,590 206.7 0.8% | Mkt Cap: 1,626m
- Published:
01 Aug 2023 -
Author:
Ben Hunt, CFA | Kate Calvert -
Pages:
6 -
H1 FY23 PBT was £63.7m, +14% YoY, (LY: £55.8m) reflecting strong LfL sales growth, albeit offset by higher levels of cost inflation - gross margins were down c.150bps YoY. Net cash was £139m (LY: £146m) while an interim dividend of 16p has been declared.
H1 company-manged LfLs were up 16% YoY, supported by a strong start to the year, in January and February, when sales comparatives were soft - reflecting the impact of Omicron last year while Q2 trading normalised, albeit still with strong LfL sales growth at c.15% YoY – with modest volume growth.
Greggs App participation has accelerated meaningfully to 10.6% of company-managed shop transactions (LY: 5.2%) which should in turn drive higher customer purchase frequency (via the new Greggs loyalty scheme). Elsewhere, Greggs opened 94 new stores in the period, and, while the number of closures (44) had an unusual bias towards H1, management remains confident of reaching its target for 150 net openings. In the meantime, evening daypart trading continues to advance and remains the fastest growing daypart, with post-4pm sales now representing 8.3% of sales (LY:6.5%).
Supply chain investment: management has commenced the redevelopment of the Birmingham distribution centre while the extension of Amesbury distribution centre is due to start in the second half. A fourth savoury production line at Balliol Park is due to be commissioned in the Q4, as expected.
Outlook & current trading: Q2 momentum has continued into current trading while cost inflation is beginning to ease - with management expecting LfL costs to grow 7% YoY in H2, from 11% YoY in H1. Management now has four months’ forward purchasing cover on requirements for food, packaging and energy input costs. We leave our PBT forecasts unchanged which assumes LfL (and PBT) growth moderate to just c, 7% YoY in H2.