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08 Mar 2022
Greggs : Finals, special dividend and robust outlook - Buy

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Greggs : Finals, special dividend and robust outlook - Buy
Greggs plc (GRG:LON) | 1,826 36.5 0.1% | Mkt Cap: 1,867m
- Published:
08 Mar 2022 -
Author:
Ben Hunt, CFA | Kate Calvert -
Pages:
7 -
FY21 PBT was in line with recent upped Q4 expectations at £145.6m (+34% 2YoY), despite growing cost headwinds towards the end of 2021, coupled with 2022 pay awards brought forward. This implies H2 PBT of £90.1m, +23% 2YoY, with EBIT margins +150bps 2YoY. As pre-reported, full-year total sales were +5.3% 2YoY, with company-managed store LFLs of -3.3% 2YoY (Q1: -21.5%, Q2: +2.8%, Q3: +3.5%, Q4: +0.8%) owing to lockdown restrictions impacting trading in Q1.
Year-end net cash was £198.6m, in line with expectations and helped by working capital inflows. As indicated at the Q4 trading update, management has declared a special dividend today of 40p given the strength of the balance sheet.
Strategic progress is underway with management planning to extend late opening hours to 500 shops (from c. 100 currently) this year as well as making delivery available in 1,300 shops (from 1,000 currently). Initial trials in 100 shops show that by combining walk-in with delivery sales, the evening daypart accounted for an average of 17% of daily sales. In the meantime, downloads of the Greggs App are now in excess of 1m with management expecting digital engagement tools to be deployed at scale in 2022 driving frequency and basket sizes. Elsewhere, management will continue to optimise supply chain investment for growth and also expects the majority of year one Greggs Pledge targets to be met. For further details of Greggs’ recent CMD, see our note here
Outlook: For the first 9 weeks of the year, LfLs are +3.7% 2YoY, however management is mindful of mounting cost pressures in raw materials, energy and store labour which are currently running ahead of initial expectations. As such, it continues to expect broadly flat profit growth in FY22, we therefore leave our PBT forecasts broadly unchanged, see details overleaf.