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02 Jul 2025
Greggs : Hot June dampener - Buy

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Greggs : Hot June dampener - Buy
Greggs plc (GRG:LON) | 1,626 374 1.4% | Mkt Cap: 1,663m
- Published:
02 Jul 2025 -
Author:
Kate Calvert -
Pages:
8 -
1H operating profits expected to be down YOY with a hot June taking its toll on sales. Total 1H sales were up 6.9% with company-managed stores LFL +2.6%. This compares to total sales growth of +7.4% with LFLs +2.9% after the first 20 weeks, which mathematically implies LFLs of 1.6% for the final 6 weeks. Inflation is running at c6% so volumes are down. Management talk about good progress in May being followed by slower growth in June (we suspect LFLs are barely positive) as high temperatures impacted consumer purchasing patterns with a profound impact on sales mix. There was increased demand for iced drinks, but overall footfall and demand were down.
FY25 operating profits could now be modestly below FY24, according to the company. Visible Alpha consensus FY25 EBIT is £198.5m (INVe £201.7m) vs £195m in FY24. The PBT impact will be higher as net interest will be higher YoY given a lower cash balance YOY due to supply chain investment.
Still confident in achieving 140 to 150 net openings for the full year, with 87 opened in 1H and 56 closed taking the store portfolio to 2,649 units. The cost inflation outlook remains unchanged and planned cost mitigation measures are expected to enhance 2H performance with the downgrade hitting 1H. Comps get easier in 2H with cost increases more of a drag in 1H.
Downgrading FY25E/FY26E PBT by 8.3%/0.8% to reflect guidance. We were c2% ahead of consensus EBIT (Visible Alpha).
Undemanding valuation. Post downgrade, the shares trade on a CY26E PE of 13.7x, at the bottom of its last 10 years’ PE forward valuation range, which does not reflect its growth opportunity or improving cash generation, in our view. A return to positive LFL volume growth is needed in the short term to restore confidence in the longer-term growth story and drive a re-rating.