Following successful trials, we expect management to start re-opening more stores in June with the whole estate likely to re-open by July. Store formats, queuing systems and ranges will need to be addressed to cope with the problem of ensuring social distancing while sales densities will inevitably be impacted. Scenario analysis for social distancing: Under varying assumptions of operational gearing, we expect cash burn would be minimal, even if sales densities remain 35% below FY19 levels for the next 12 months. In reality, we expect downward pressures on sales densities to ease as the government progressively begins to relax lockdown and distancing measures. Forecasts: We lower our forecasts, and now expect losses of c. £41m this year, following store closures in Q2 and social distancing negatively impacting store profitability in H2. However, importantly, our outer year PBT forecasts decline by much less (FY22E: -12%) with store profitability returning to FY19 levels by H2 FY21E. We expect cash generation to resume quickly once stores re-open, such that we expect Greggs to end the year with £10m of net debt (before dividend distributions). On this basis, with new banking facilities of £150m, Greggs could, in theory, resume paying dividends in H2. Valuation: Given its value-based, low transaction cost offering, Greggs should be relatively immune from potential ongoing recessionary pressures, while investments into its supply chain and range proposition over many years should support sales and margins. Further efforts to widen delivery channels should support growth as well, while recent reductions in commodity prices could provide margin tailwinds. With no immediate liquidity concerns, we believe the long-term growth story remains fundamentally intact. Our new target price is 1,788p (based on 25x FY21E PE). Buy reiterated.