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28 Jul 2020
Greggs : Re-opening the doors - Buy

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Greggs : Re-opening the doors - Buy
Greggs plc (GRG:LON) | 1,926 1328.9 3.7% | Mkt Cap: 1,969m
- Published:
28 Jul 2020 -
Author:
Ben Hunt, CFA | Kate Calvert -
Pages:
7 -
H1 FY20, IFRS 16 adjusted underlying LBT was £65.2m following the closure of all stores in March and subsequent partial re-opening in June. Total sales for the half were -45% with company-managed store LFLs -49%, having reported LfLs of +7.5% for the first 9 weeks of the year. Net debt was £26.2m reflecting cash operating outflows – management is working to establish a new banking facility in H2. As expected, no interim dividend has been declared.
Outlook: In the most recent week, given social distancing, company-managed sales have been tracking at 72% of FY19 levels – at 80%, management believes it would break even. Thus management expects to continue to use support from the CJRS as well as the business rates holiday and recent landlord negotiations mean rents will now be paid monthly going forward. Further tailwinds are expected from commodity cost inflation easing, meaning overall cost inflation will now be 4% (previously 7%) this year.
Long-term strategy will continue to focus on rolling out stores and growing the “click & collect” and delivery channels, which management hopes to roll out nationwide in the coming months. Elsewhere, management believes the pipeline for new store opportunities remains strong, although capex will fall back to £55m this year, in line with our expectations, with the pace of store openings temporarily slowing to 60.
Brand appeal is broad-based, with the majority of stores located in towns and suburbs. Therefore, Greggs is not materially reliant on custom from office-based workers (many of whom are currently based at home). We understand fewer than 14% of locations are based in public transport, city centre or office location hubs. Indeed, management estimates that no more than 20% of Greggs’ shoppers are likely to have the option to work from home.