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10 Jan 2024
Greggs : Solid end to the year - Buy

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Greggs : Solid end to the year - Buy
Greggs plc (GRG:LON) | 1,579 -205.3 (-0.8%) | Mkt Cap: 1,615m
- Published:
10 Jan 2024 -
Author:
Ben Hunt, CFA | Kate Calvert -
Pages:
7 -
Q4 LfLs were slightly ahead of our expectations at +9.4% YoY (INVe: +7% YoY) with continued growth in transaction numbers, albeit slowing since Q3, following a reduced contribution from price inflation – worth c. 4ppts – as well as Q3 this year benefitting from easier comparatives following the impact of the Queen’s funeral last year – worth 1ppt. LfLs were Q1: +16.5% YoY, Q2: +15% YoY, Q3: +14.2% YoY. We note on a 2YoY basis that LfLs in fact accelerated across quarters to 27% 2YoY, versus 24% 2YoY in Q3.
Extended trading hours, digital and delivery: Evening trade (sales post-4pm) remains the fastest growing area of sales with Pizza performing strongly while delivery sales are benefitting from the recent additional partnership with Uber Eats platform – now in 710 shops. Greggs App participation also continues to progress, as high as 13.1% (of transactions) at Q3.
Record store openings and strong pipeline: A record 220 new stores were opened during the year (Q3: 50, H1: 94) – implying 76 openings in Q4 alone, while planned investment into the supply for additional manufacturing and logistics capacity is progressing well. As such, year-end net cash was £195m (INVe: £138.5m) which will further support future growth, with management expecting to open a net 140 to 160 stores next year.
Outlook and forecasts: We nudge up our PBT forecasts by 1.5%, following the slightly better than expected finish to the year. Next year, with good forward cover on food input costs and energy, we expect last year’s inflationary pressure to moderate despite elevated labour costs. We therefore expect a combination of sales from new store openings and modest LfL sales growth (+5% YoY) to drive c. 9% PBT growth.