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  • 05 Jan 2023

Greggs : Strong end to the year - Buy


Greggs plc (GRG:LON) | 1,607 546.4 2.2% | Mkt Cap: 1,643m


  • Investec Bank
    • Ben Hunt, CFA | Kate Calvert

    • 7 pages


 

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Greggs : Strong end to the year - Buy


Greggs plc (GRG:LON) | 1,607 546.4 2.2% | Mkt Cap: 1,643m


  • Published: 05 Jan 2023
  • Author: Ben Hunt, CFA | Kate Calvert
  • Pages: 7
  • Investec Bank


Momentum accelerated in Q4 with LfLs up 17.8% YoY (Q1: +36.9% YoY, Q2: +11.2% YoY, Q3: +9.7% YoY) versus underlying trading in the latter 4 weeks of Q3 at c. +13% YoY. This performance was despite adverse weather and strikes - reflecting favourable trading, further price moves implemented in October, and softer comparatives last year when trading was disrupted by the Omicron Covid variant. For reference, two-year LfLs eased by c. 270bps between Q3 and Q4 last year. Early-evening (in 500 stores) remains the fastest growing daypart. There has also been strong growth in the use of the Greggs App, with consumers increasingly focused on value via the loyalty aspect. Seasonal lines were also in high demand throughout Q4. Year-end net cash was £191m versus our estimate of £174m, in part reflecting phasing of capex investment, albeit previously described. This will further support investment into growing the shop estate and supply chain capacity going forward. As such, management expect to open 150 net new stores again in 2023, having opened a net 147 in 2022. FY23E PBT forecasts unchanged (see overleaf). Management continues to expect material cost inflation (we assume costs increase c.10% in FY23E - broadly in line with FY22 cost inflation). However, visibility on costs is starting to improve given pay awards for staff have now been agreed and food input inflation is likely to ease as it annualises against high levels last year. Energy costs at c. 5% of sales continue to have the lowest visibility. Management has good cover up to Q1, but will face headwinds when hedges start to roll over. However, the recent fall in wholesale energy prices is reassuring. Despite cost headwinds, we continue to expect profit growth in FY23E with profits driven by cost recovery (from price moves), store openings and extended store opening hours.

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