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06 Jan 2022
Greggs : Succession all round - Buy
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Greggs : Succession all round - Buy
Greggs plc (GRG:LON) | 1,574 -204.6 (-0.8%) | Mkt Cap: 1,609m
- Published:
06 Jan 2022 -
Author:
Ben Hunt, CFA | Kate Calvert -
Pages:
7 -
Q4 two-year LfL sales are +0.8% (Q1: -21.5%, Q2: +2.8%, Q3: +3.5%) with the cessation of VAT relief in the period contributing to some deceleration (c. -200bps) in LfL since Q3. Nevertheless, this was a robust performance given trading was impacted by both labour and supply chain disruption, as well as challenging conditions from lower footfall - owing to the new coronavirus variant. We understand seasonal lines continue to prove popular, as do new Vegan lines.
Store pipeline: A net 103 new stores have been opened this year– with delivery service now available from 1,000 stores (Q3: 900). Going forward - in-line with its stated strategy at the recent Capital Markets Day - management intends to open a net 150 new stores in 2022.
Outlook and profit expectations: Cash generation was strong in the period, with year-end net cash at £198m (INVe: £117m) helped in part by one-off working capital inflows that will reverse next year. Pleasingly, despite growing cost headwinds towards the end of 2021, coupled with 2022 pay awards brought forward, good control over operating costs means management now expects profits to be “slightly” ahead of expectations. We upgrade FY21E PBT by c.2%. Going forward, management continues to expect food input price and wage inflation pressures to increase into 2022, thus we leave our outer year forecasts essentially unchanged.
CEO Succession: Separately, Greggs has today announced the appointment of Roisin Currie, currently Greggs Retail and Property Director, as CEO effective from the Company’s AGM in May 2022. Roger Whiteside will step down from the Board at the close of the AGM, but will remain available to support the transition process until his notice expires on 5 January 2023.