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05 Oct 2021
Greggs : Unlocking a £1.2bn growth runway - Buy
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Greggs : Unlocking a £1.2bn growth runway - Buy
Greggs plc (GRG:LON) | 1,634 -490.2 (-1.8%) | Mkt Cap: 1,671m
- Published:
05 Oct 2021 -
Author:
Ben Hunt, CFA | Kate Calvert -
Pages:
9 -
Q3 two-year LfL revenues are up +3.5% with a particularly strong performance in August – helped by the “staycation” effect – and a solid result in September. Previously, two-year LfLs were reported as having been up +0.4% in July at the beginning of the quarter. Management attribute the performance to further extension of the vegan range as well as Pizza and savoury boxes helping the delivery channel – now available in 943 stores. Year-to-date, a net 84 stores have been opened – 33% in drive-thru locations. Management continues to expect to open a net 100 new stores this year.
Outlook: Two-year LfLs have been tracking at +3% (four weeks to 2nd October), although management reports that there has been some disruption to the availability of labour and supply of ingredients/products in recent months. Therefore, with food input inflation pressures increasing, it expects costs to increase towards the end of 2021 and into 2022. However, given good operational cost control and strong Q3 sales, management now expects full year PBT to be ahead of our previous expectations. We upgrade our forecasts by +6.5% this year, but leave outer year forecasts broadly unchanged.
Strategic developments: Management now has ambitious targets to double revenues over the next 5 years to c. £2.4bn in 2026. This should be achieved by accelerating the rate of net shop openings to c.150 p.a. from 2022 onwards (versus 100 p.a. more recently) and thereby growing the estate to at least 3,000 shops. It also plans to develop its multichannel sales by extending evening trading, building on the success of the delivery channel and improving customer loyalty via the new Greggs app. We provide a more detailed summary of strategic developments overleaf. As such, we estimate new ambitions imply “double-digit” CAGR revenue growth (and likely profit growth too), suggesting the valuation on 25.1x FY22E PE is undemanding.