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08 Jan 2020
Greggs : Veganuary upgrades - Buy

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Greggs : Veganuary upgrades - Buy
Greggs plc (GRG:LON) | 1,826 36.5 0.1% | Mkt Cap: 1,867m
- Published:
08 Jan 2020 -
Author:
Ben Hunt, CFA | Kate Calvert -
Pages:
7 -
LfL momentum continues with Greggs achieving company-managed LfLs of +8.7% (2 year: +13.9%) across Q4 versus +7.4% (2 year LfL: +10.6%) at Q3. This also implies that trading in later November and December continued to be strong at (c. +9%), given LfLs were recently reported to be up +8.3% for the 6 weeks to 9th November. As such, total full-year sales were +13.5% and the estate grew to 2,050 shops.
Performance continues to be driven by both new and existing customers purchasing more frequently and was once again generally broad-based across categories. However, the traditional savoury category continued to outperform, helped by the iconic vegan sausage roll. Going forward, we expect the recently launched vegan steak bake and first vegan doughnut will continue to excite customers as well as benefitting the Greggs brand.
Outlook: Given Greggs’ exceptional performance this year, employees will now share a one-off £7m bonus payment and management expect forecasts (after the cost of the bonus payment) to be “slightly” higher than previous expectations. Next year, management intends to roll out 100 net stores, but remains mindful of headwinds from higher National Living Wage costs and pork prices, much of which we expect to be mitigated by efficiencies.
Forecasts and valuation: We upgrade PBT by +1.7% this year and by even more next year, +3.9%, after increasing our FY20E LfL assumption to 5% (previously +2%) – see details overleaf. This implies limited profit drop-through from our increased LfL sales assumption and we thus see our forecasts as conservative. On our revised forecasts, the shares now trade on 25x PE. Despite tougher comparatives, we still see the potential for further sizable upgrades in FY20, cash returns and, in the longer-term, upside to the size of the existing store estate. On this basis, the valuation remains undemanding, in our view.