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  • 04 Sep 2020

Forgive or forget


boohoo group Plc (DEBS:LON) | 12.8 0 2.0% | Mkt Cap: 178.2m


  • BNP Paribas Exane
    • Charlie Muir-Sands

    • 26 pages


 

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Forgive or forget


boohoo group Plc (DEBS:LON) | 12.8 0 2.0% | Mkt Cap: 178.2m


  • Published: 04 Sep 2020
  • Author: Charlie Muir-Sands
  • Pages: 26
  • BNP Paribas Exane


Investors haven''t fully forgiven, but most consumers seem to have forgotten Boohoo shares are 27% off their YTD highs, albeit 45% up from recent lows following early July press reports questioning wage and safety compliance in its UK supplier factory base. Ahead of 1H results (30 Sept.) and publication of the independent review findings we attempt to assess reputational risks to sales growth using social media data and scenario-test headwinds to margins. We trim forecasts c.6% but remain 6-12% ahead of consensus. ESG-focused investors are unlikely to buy Boohoo now, but we see a good chance the financial impact won''t be severe and the company can gradually rehabilitate its standing amongst investors. We upgrade to Outperform. Social media trends are looking healthy... We delve back into our Survey of Shoppers to understand the importance of ethical credentials for clothing shoppers, and look at how that has increased recently. We also introduce a detailed tracker assessing brand engagement on Instagram, the dominant social media platform for the group''s customer base. Since the scandal broke one month into the as-yet unreported Q2 we have continued to see positive trends in metrics such as: followers; likes; comments and relative engagement for the Group''s major brands. We show the relevance and correlation of these metrics as well as potential risks of over-reliance on such indicators. The picture they paint is not one to suggest growth has collapsed. Further negative press, such as is likely to be seen when the investigation report is published, could reignite consumer awareness of the accusations but so far it appears the issue has been forgotten by Boohoo''s target market. ...though costs of sourcing with more ethical rigour could dent margins Investments committed by management so far to enhance supply chain integrity would only create a small drag. If accusations of supplier wage abuse turn out to be widespread then gross margin...

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