18 Oct 2024
H1 business update: unanswered questions
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H1 business update: unanswered questions
boohoo group Plc (DEBS:LON) | 12.8 0 2.0% | Mkt Cap: 178.2m
- Published:
18 Oct 2024 -
Author:
Okines Warwick WO | Strauss Mia MS -
Pages:
11 -
Lots of uncertainty
Boohoo''s unscheduled H1 business update left us with unanswered questions regarding the outlook of the business. H1 revenue and profits materially missed consensus expectations, the CEO is stepping down, a new GBP 222m debt financing agreement has been signed and the Board is undertaking a strategic business review to maximise shareholder value. This follows Boohoo''s announcement last month of the closure of its US distribution centre. We maintain our Underperform rating and continue to prefer Zalando (+) within pureplay online.
H1 revenue and profit miss
H1 GMV declined -7% yoy (including UK -2%), while revenue was -15% yoy, missing consensus expectations of -5%. The Group continues to see challenging market conditions, particularly affecting its youth brands. Debenhams marketplace is reporting positive growth and has onboarded over 10,000 brands. H1 Adj. EBITDA was materially below expectations (GBP 21m vs GBP 34m), which we think reflects both weaker top-line growth and continued investment into growth areas.
Open-ended FY Feb-25 guidance
Given the uncertainty around the CEO transition and Group strategy, it is understandable that management did not provide detailed FY Feb-25 guidance. It expects a ''higher'' GMV and ''stronger'' adj. EBITDA performance in H2 versus H1. It is unclear exactly what this means, but we lower our H2 revenue growth forecast to -8% (from +4%) and nudge up our H2 adj. EBITDA forecast to GBP 28m (from GBP 22m). We would expect FY25 consensus revenue growth to fall by mid-single digits (VA cons +0.3%) and an adj. EBITDA (VA cons GBP 64m) cut of at least c.-15%.
C.-19% FY Feb-25 earnings cut, remain Underperform
We cut our FY25 revenue forecasts by c.-12% and adj. EBITDA forecasts by c.-19%, reflecting the H1 sales and profit miss. Consequently, our FY26-27e forecasts fall -5% to -10%. Lower capex and finance charges result in an unchanged DCF-based TP of GBp 28; we remain Underperform.