09 May 2024
Is there sunshine at the end of the tunnel? (& 15 questions)
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Is there sunshine at the end of the tunnel? (& 15 questions)
boohoo group Plc (DEBS:LON) | 13.2 0 0.4% | Mkt Cap: 185.2m
- Published:
09 May 2024 -
Author:
Okines Warwick WO | Strauss Mia MS -
Pages:
11 -
Bottom-end of the range performance
Boohoo delivered a full year sales decline of -17% and adj. EBITDA of GBP 58.6m that came in at the bottom-end of the guided range and below consensus expectations. Challenging markets and a slower than expected US roll-out were drags on top-line growth. Management reiterated its medium-term adj. EBITDA margin target of 6-8%, which should be supported by cost control, volume growth, automation, and marketplace expansion. We remain Underperform, lowering estimates and preferring Zalando (+) across our pureplay online coverage.
Although still negative, core brands and marketplace growth are improving
Despite a -17% year-on-year sales decline, H2 saw an improvement in growth from core brands and the Debenhams marketplace. Additionally, the continued focus on cost reduction and increasing efficiencies from the Sheffield automation project supported profitability.
''Quietly confident'' outlook
Management is ''quietly confident'' about the outlook but did not provide detailed guidance for FY Feb-25. It expects to communicate this at a CMD later this year. It said, however, that it targets GMV growth and a continued improvement in the adj. EBITDA margin (BNPP Exane c.+70bps year-on-year) in FY Feb-25. In the US the current focus is on achieving scale and driving profitable growth with PLT and Nasty Gal before going live with the remaining core brands.
Cutting estimates, but capex also cut
We cut our revenue estimates by c.-5% and adj. EBITDA estimates by c.7-10% for FY25-27e, to reflect the weaker top line growth and slower rollout in the US. Lower capex, however, following the completion of the automation project and the US warehouse, results in an unchanged DCF-based target priced at GBp 35. We remain Underperform. At our TP Boohoo would trade on a CY 25 and CY 26 EV/EBITDA of c.9x and c.7x. See inside for questions for management.