04 May 2022
May the fourth warehouse come soon (and 15 Questions)
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May the fourth warehouse come soon (and 15 Questions)
boohoo group Plc (DEBS:LON) | 13.2 0 0.4% | Mkt Cap: 185.2m
- Published:
04 May 2022 -
Author:
Muir-Sands Charlie CMS | Katsapas Nicolas NK -
Pages:
8 -
Facing into another year of ''temporary'' supply chain headwinds
FY Feb-22 adj EBITDA fell 28% yoy, albeit was in line with pre-close guidance, as supply chain inflation weighed on margins. Initial guidance for FY23 assumes no reprieve from these elevated costs whilst slow international outbound air freight also significantly continues to dampen overseas demand. We make little change to our below-consensus adj EBITDA forecast, albeit cut EPS on higher interest expense and tax rate. The ecommerce market faces other challenges including post-pandemic reopening, a tough consumer macro backdrop and Chinese rivals. Remaining selective in the space, though, we retain our Outperform rating on Boohoo given turnaround potential.
Supply chain costs continue to drag margins...
Management estimates GBP60m of extra in- and outbound costs from higher freight fees than seen pre-pandemic implying the 6.3% adj EBITDA margin reported was dragged c.300bps. A further 170bps is attributable to the setup and re-launch of recently acquired brands including multi-brand site Debenhams. We estimate MandA in total added c.9ppt to growth in FY22, suggesting good momentum established from these brands which typically have to be relaunched from scratch.
...but the biggest problem remains International shipping speeds
However, Boohoo Group''s biggest problem remains the substantial delays in getting orders to International customers from its three UK warehouses: taking 8-10 days to reach the US, for example. The company still plans to open a US warehouse, and this will allow 1-3 day delivery once operational. However, the timetable for this remains mid-2023 (FY24). Wholesale development remains one small mitigant, with a further two accounts in India and UK hinted at coming soon to add to Alshaya (MENA), About You (Europe) and Very (UK), but more generally we continue to think the group''s overall growth will remain constrained until more international air freight capacity...