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19 Jan 2023
No Claus for celebration
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No Claus for celebration
boohoo group Plc (DEBS:LON) | 13.2 0 0.4% | Mkt Cap: 185.2m
- Published:
19 Jan 2023 -
Author:
Katsapas Nicolas NK -
Pages:
9 -
Simply not having a wonderful Christmas time
Boohoo completed the scheduled reporting season for our online retail coverage with another disappointing sales performance for the pure players. P3 sales were -13% cFX yoy (vs -10% expected). Gross margins were also worse than expected. The regional mix was less surprising, with the US lagging the group as extended delivery times negatively impact the customer proposition. The US warehouse is ramping up, but the first brand going live in September is a bit later than we had hoped. That all said, guidance for FY23 adj. EBITDA was in line with market expectations. What hit the shares today was management''s comments on FY Feb-24. We think consensus will cut EBITDA estimates by c.15-25%: we cut our forecast by 36%. Boohoo is another online retailer whose turnaround is tough to have confidence in. We remain on the side-lines with a Neutral rating.
Discounting too much causing a January / February hangover
Boohoo guided FY Feb-23 sales of -12% yoy. This implies a sharp drop off from -13% in P3 to c.-23% in P4 (January/February). The equivalent period last year was highly promotional, boosting sales but hitting gross margins c.-780bps. Boohoo expects to win that margin back by removing unprofitable sales, hence expects FY23 Adj. EBITDA margins broadly in line with consensus.
2023 a tough year to get growth and margins back in shape
Without guiding on FY Feb-24, we understand Boohoo''s initial expectations for adj. EBITDA are closer to the implied H2 23E margin (c.3%) suggesting a margin decline rather than improvement to cons. c.4.5%. Managing costs and headcount are unlikely to be enough to offset inflation or US facility ramp-up costs. There are bright spots in cash: liquidity seems comfortable enough, and the working capital outlook better from inventory reduction and extended payment terms.
Rebasing our expectations, we lower profits but expect better cash from WC movements
We maintain our FY23 adj....