24 Apr 2020
boohoo Group : Mutating to deliver - Buy
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boohoo Group : Mutating to deliver - Buy
boohoo group Plc (DEBS:LON) | 13.2 0 0.4% | Mkt Cap: 185.2m
- Published:
24 Apr 2020 -
Author:
Ben Hunt, CFA | Kate Calvert -
Pages:
9 -
Strong end to year, with P4 sales growth sustained across both established brands (boohoo: P4: +40%, PLT: +42%) despite tough comparatives for the boohoo brand. Strong sell-through also led to a pleasing gross margin performance in H2 for the boohoo brand, with gross margins up 100bps (P3: -20bps) while gross margins were flat over P4 for PLT having been -200bps, in H1 and -130bps in P3. Consequently boohoo finished the year with full year sales ahead of guidance at +44% and with EBITDA margins towards the top end of its guided range at 10.2%.
Trading since year end has been resilient, with boohoo achieving positive sales growth (albeit much reduced from P4 levels) in mid-March. New customer acquisition and improved existing customers spend has led to sales growth improving in April. Management believes that gross margins, to date, have held up relatively well too.
KPIs and Value churn: appear to be in good shape with larger baskets and increased customer purchase frequency continuing to drive sales per customer (FY20: +11%). As such, management now believes that annual value churn (lost sales attrition per cohort) is less than 15% supported by existing customers spending more in later years. With value churn higher for newly acquired brands, underlying churn for established brands must be even better. This is significant when considering customer lifetime value.
Forecasts: We cut our FY21E PBT forecasts by 17% and now assume full year sales growth of 16.5% which assumes P1 sales growth of 5% before normalising (see overleaf). Inventory levels are currently elevated at +48% which may lead to some gross margin dilution. We factor in gross margins falling 100bps in FY21E before recovering in outer years. Our target price is trimmed to 355p. Buy reiterated.