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  • 16 Dec 2021

First Take: boohoo Group - 3Q profit warning


boohoo group Plc (DEBS:LON) | 12.6 0 1.2% | Mkt Cap: 176.8m


  • Investec Bank
    • Ben Hunt, CFA | Kate Calvert

    • 4 pages


 

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First Take: boohoo Group - 3Q profit warning


boohoo group Plc (DEBS:LON) | 12.6 0 1.2% | Mkt Cap: 176.8m


  • Published: 16 Dec 2021
  • Author: Ben Hunt, CFA | Kate Calvert
  • Pages: 4
  • Investec Bank


3Q trading update & revised guidance Management has lowered FY guidance along with its 3Q trading update to 30 November. This is mainly due to much higher returns rates, disruption to the international proposition and cost inflation. Management believes these impacts relate to the pandemic and are transient in nature as a result. We believe most of these issues are likely to continue into next year. UK performance remains robust with 3Q net sales up 32% YoY, and 78% on a 2 year basis, although returns are up 12.5% percentage points YoY, and 7% higher than pre-pandemic levels, driven by an exceptionally high dress mix. Elsewhere, US net sales are down 14% YoY (up 36% on a 2 year basis). Rest of Europe sales are down 12% YoY and up 15% on a 2 year basis, with ROW down 4% on a 2 year basis. New FY22 guidance is an adjusted EBITDA range £117m to £139m versus INVe £193m New FY22 guidance is for net sales +12% to +14% (previously 20%-25%). Adjusted EBITDA margin of 6%-7% (previously 9% to 9.5%) implies an adjusted EBITDA range of £117m to £139m, versus INVe £193m. Higher inbound freight costs has hit gross margin by 100bps which is a c.£20m profit hit. Extra outbound freight cost inflation has had a £45m impact, with start-up costs for recent brand acquisitions of £10m according to management. Medium term targets have been reiterated. Management continues to invest in the infrastructure, with plans for a US distribution centre and a Group network capable of delivering in excess of £5billion of sales. The medium term margin target of c.10% has also been reiterated. We place our recommendation, forecast and TP under review

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