30 Sep 2020
First Take: boohoo Group - Interims - Momentum continues
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First Take: boohoo Group - Interims - Momentum continues
boohoo group Plc (DEBS:LON) | 13.0 0 0.0% | Mkt Cap: 181.7m
- Published:
30 Sep 2020 -
Author:
Ben Hunt, CFA | Kate Calvert -
Pages:
4 -
Strong momentum in P1 has continued into P2, particularly in the UK where sales accelerated over the period. Full year sales and margin guidance has been upped, such that there is room for consensus to increase by c. 6% to 10% in our view.
H1 trading
Adjusted EBITDA was £89.8m (+48%) versus consensus of £81.2m. with higher gross margins and reduced marketing helping to offset increased distribution costs. Net cash was £345m (consensus: £341m).
Group H1 sales were £816.5m, +45% (P1: +45%), implying the run rate in P1 continued over P2. Consensus was for H1 sales of £773m (+37%). Group gross margins were +70bps (P1:+ 60bps). Consensus was for flat H1 gross margins.
Boohoo has not broken out brand performances; therefore, by territory, H1 sales in the UK were +37% (P1: +30%) with gross margins up +180bps. In the UK, performance was strong across all brands and gross margins were helped by lower returns. In ROE, sales performance was also strong across all brands, particularly for Nasty Gal and boohooMan. Sales growth was +41% (P1:+66%) with broadly flat gross margins, where margin gains from lower returns were offset by higher freight costs. Performance in the US was helped by strong sales in the PLT and boohooMan brands, with sales up +83% (P1+79%). Gross margins were down 260bps due to promotional activity and distribution costs, and also impacted by higher freight costs.
Outlook
Full year sales growth is now expected to be between 28% and 32% (previously +25%; FY20 consensus: +29%) and EBITDA margins are now expected to be 10% (previously between 9.5% and 10%; FY20 consensus: 9.5%).
This implies (taking the mid-point of sales growth guidance) that sales growth needs to be less than 20% for the remainder of the year to hit guidance and that management expect FY21 EBITDA to be c. £160.5m (consensus: £151.4m).
View
Management remains cautious given macroeconomic uncertainty, but sales in September have started well and inventory levels are currently up 80% suggesting management is “cautiously optimistic”. We highlight that if sales slowed to just +30% in H2, assuming a 10% EBITDA margin, EBITDA would be c. £170m. Still, it is important to remember that the recent Review highlights the need for supplier rationalisation which could, in our view, restrain some sales growth. That said, the valuation is undemanding pre-forecast changes at 45x NTM PE, offering 27% p.a. 3-year EPS CAGR (FY20-23E).