11 Jun 2021
First Take: boohoo Group - P1 – many moving parts
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First Take: boohoo Group - P1 – many moving parts
boohoo group Plc (DEBS:LON) | 13.2 0 0.4% | Mkt Cap: 185.2m
- Published:
11 Jun 2021 -
Author:
Ben Hunt, CFA | Kate Calvert -
Pages:
4 -
Trading over P1 – 3 months ending 31st May
Next week, boohoo will report P1 trading results for the three months ending 31st May on Tuesday (15th June). This will be the first UK online clothing retailer to give colour on trading throughout the months of April and May when stores have re-opened and thus marks a pivotal moment, in our view.
boohoo last reported group sales up +37% for the 2 months ending February, at its prelims in May. We expect there to be some focus on ROE, where sales growth was particularly weak in P4 last year – slowing from +30% in P3 last year to -3% in P4. Explanations for this slowdown were lacking from management, in our opinion. We note similar trends emerging at ASOS – has Zalando captured market share in Europe? ROW at boohoo also saw a similar slowing across P4, reporting lacklustre sales growth of just +3% in P4.
Comparatives last year were strong, with group sales growth up 45% (in particular, US sales growth accelerated to +79%). Within the discrete trading period last year, trading was volatile – subdued throughout mid-March and April, but ending with a strong exit rate; we therefore expect management to report mixed trading throughout the course of P1.
Full year guidance is for sales growth to be +25% this year, but management – owing to the tough comparatives over H1 – expect EBITDA to be more weighted towards H2.
While management’s outlook at the prelims at the beginning of May was upbeat, we note the cold weather that persisted throughout May which could have dampened performance.
View
With consensus expecting full year sales growth of +29% for the outturn of the year, expectations are reasonable in our view. The valuation on 29x FY22E PE – offering 22% EPS CAGR (FY21-FY24E) – also appears modest in our opinion and does not appear to be factoring in upgrades. With management progressing well, eradicating supply chain malpractice which we note appears not to be coming at the expense of margins, risks are receding here. We suspect the company is generally well positioned to adapt to re-opening trends (higher occasion wear) given the strength of its test and repeat model.