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  • 18 Jul 2025

1Q26 Trading update: Off the call - CEO bullish on Autumn collection


Burberry Group plc (BRBY:LON) | 1,224 416.2 2.9% | Mkt Cap: 4,397m


  • BNP Paribas Exane
    • Belge Antoine AB

    • 10 pages


 

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1Q26 Trading update: Off the call - CEO bullish on Autumn collection


Burberry Group plc (BRBY:LON) | 1,224 416.2 2.9% | Mkt Cap: 4,397m


  • Published: 18 Jul 2025
  • Author: Belge Antoine AB
  • Pages: 10
  • BNP Paribas Exane


What happened? Burberry released its 1Q26 Trading update with retail LFL down -1%, better than consensus (-3%) and BNPPE (-4%) though probably a bit shy of buy-side expectations (-1% to flat). Find here our first take: 1Q26 Retail LFL (-1%) a 2% beat, further accelerating vs -6% in 4Q Management tone during the call was extremely confident. In particular, CEO Joshua Schulman was upbeat about the Autumn collection, the real first collection with the new Burberry strategy fully in place in terms of new products, stronger signifiers and right pricing. Sell-through for this collection are higher than for last year''s Autumn collection. The company confirmed EBIT to be more 2H skewed due to higher investments and less benefits from cost savings in 1H and stated that it felt comfortable with a small profit expected by consensus in 1H26 and cGBP140m of EBIT in FY Mar 26. Net net, this publication provides incremental concrete evidence that the Burberry recovery story is unfolding. Key highlights from the conference call: . 1Q exit rates: June was a bit better than the quarter, but very difficult to compare from last year, 2Q is an important quarter for tourism; . Performance by cluster: Sequentially improvement everywhere. Locals in EMEIA up MSD% (and tourism down); Chinese cluster down MSD %, in line with 4Q with local demand up and tourism down; Americans, much encouraged by what they see (both new customers and returning ones); . Chinese: seeing the Chinese customer shipping more at home. Seeing a decline in Chinese tourism in other regions around China (Japan especially). In China seeing the same range of customer archetypes. In the quarter saw the growth of Gen Z and younger customers, maybe because of their marketing message; . Space: -1%, confirmed neutral for FY and trying to improve store productivity within the stores; . Japan and S. Korea: -10% for Japan, which was partially offset by S. Korea returning to growth to +2% . EBIT 1H vs 2H: more...

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