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17 Sep 2025
2Q/1H26 preview (due 13 Nov) post call with IR
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2Q/1H26 preview (due 13 Nov) post call with IR
Burberry Group plc (BRBY:LON) | 1,294 -181.2 (-1.1%) | Mkt Cap: 4,671m
- Published:
17 Sep 2025 -
Author:
Grippo Melania MG | Belge Antoine AB | Charchafji Anthony AC -
Pages:
16 -
We expect 2Q26 LFL at +1% (previous estimate +3%)
We expect retail LFL to improve to +1% (from -1% 1Q) with improvements in the US, seen up +6% (from +4%) driven by gains in new local customers and ongoing strong wealth effects. APAC is expected to improve as well to -1% (from -4%) driven by ML China turning positive at +4% (from -5%) despite the mid-Autumn festival shift to 3Q (vs. in Sept LY). However, rest of APAC is expected to remain weak with Korea at -5% notably due to a rather warm weather. EMEA is seen slowing to -1% (from +1%) with weaker tourism (c.55% of sales, vs. 45-50% in other quarters).
We continue to expect limited profitability at the adj. EBIT level in 1H26
We now expect GBP10m adj. EBIT in 1H due to timing of cost cutting (2H weighted), topline pick-up expected in 2H, and marketing (1H weighted). GPM is likely to improve c290bp y/y and opex down 10% y/y using 25/75% variable/fixed opex. 1H should benefit from the non-recurrence of GBP33m impairments, and GBP17m as part of the cost cutting plans.
LFL and wholesale likely to improve in 2H
We continue to expect LFL acceleration in 2H despite the tougher comps, with 3Q at +4% and 4Q at +7%. As collections are being rolled out (Fall in stores in July, Winter in Sept, Summer-26 next Feb), we expect wholesale partners to gain confidence in increasing their orders. As such, we expect wholesale to be flattish in 2H (from -15% in 1H). These should drive a strong rebound in profitability with 1) GPM rebuild (+400bp in 2H) on inventory exits in the base, 2) operating leverage, and 3) more benefit from cost cutting plans (GBP39m vs. GBP17m in 1H).
FY 26-28e EPS cut by 5/2/2%. Maintain O/P with TP at GBp1,550 (unchanged)
Despite a more muted 2Q expectation than previously, we believe Burberry has all the drivers in place to benefit from sequential acceleration. The Burberry Forward strategy continues to deliver on its improved merchandising and focus on core heritage. However, we raise the...