FY22 EBIT likely a touch higher in spite of softer 4Q top line due to Covid Burberry will report FY Mar 22 earnings on 18 May. We expect weaker-than-expected Retail comps in 4Q ending Mar 22 (7% vs 10% previously) entirely due to Covid restrictions impacting China sales for the entire luxury industry more meaningfully since March. Other key markets - US, Europe, Japan, Korea, Middle East - should have remained robust, in spite of higher inflation and the Ukraine situation. This 7% comp figure should still mean an underperformance compared to ''Division 1'' players (we notably forecast 23% organic growth at LVMH Fashion and Leather). At the EBIT level, we are nevertheless now forecasting a slightly higher figure (GBP515m vs GBP510m previously) due to lower-than-expected opex. New CEO on board since 15 March Russians account for 1.2% of total sales. Burberry recently implemented a 10% average price increase, ahead of cost inflation (c4-5%). New CEO Jonathan Akeroyd joined on 15 March. In our 11 Feb Ready to bounce report, we analysed its track record at Alexander McQueen then Versace and argued he should find Burberry in better shape than a few years ago, but would need to address the limited brand desirability improvement in Europe. Since J. Akeroyd did not have access to internal information until last week, the proper strategic update should happen in November rather than May. However, we believe the market could already react positively to some initial action points providing comfort around the medium-term guidance calling for HSD organic sales growth and c20% EBIT margin by FY Mar 24 (which should not be considered as a ceiling). TP lowered to 2,500p (from 2,650) on higher WACC Our FY Mar 22-24e estimates (3%, 6% and 11% above consensus) are broadly unchanged. However, like for other luxury stocks, we are increasing our WACC on Burberry from 8.4% to 8.9%, hence our lower TP. Burberry is trading on calendar PER of 15.8x 22e and 14.3x 23e,...