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26 Mar 2025
FY Mar 25 preview: revenues not immune, more cost savings likely

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FY Mar 25 preview: revenues not immune, more cost savings likely
Burberry Group plc (BRBY:LON) | 1,183 -266.2 (-1.9%) | Mkt Cap: 4,249m
- Published:
26 Mar 2025 -
Author:
Grippo Melania MG | Belge Antoine AB | Charchafji Anthony AC -
Pages:
15 -
Preview of FY Mar 25 results (due 14 May)
Burberry does not report FY Mar 25 results until 14 May, but as we are in full preview mode for calendar Q125 for the rest of our coverage, we also take the opportunity to refine our Burberry estimates. For 4Q revenues ending March 25, we forecast -7% Retail comp (vs -2% previously), ie no sequential improvement vs the -7% underlying trend posted in 3Q (-4% reported including c3% artificial boost from product clearance). In spite of continuous product and management improvement, Burberry is unlikely to have been immune to the recent US sector slowdown following a post-election bump and softer tourism flows in Europe. However, we are keeping our FY Mar 25e EBIT unchanged at GBP14m as we are confident Burberry was cost-disciplined during the quarter.
Additional cost savings likely to be announced
In FY March 26, based on the already announced cost savings programme, Burberry should get the benefits of GBP15m incremental savings and lower impairments (GBP23m y/y benefit we estimate). In addition, management already hinted it started examining other savings initiatives. Without factoring in any of these in our estimates yet, we feel we can leave our FY Mar 26 and 27 estimates unchanged, and we remain 21% and 14% above consensus, respectively.
Outperform rating re-iterated; TP unchanged
We upgraded Burberry on 11 March 2025 (Upgrade to Outperform on commerciality improvements) on confirmed evidence of commerciality improvements, significantly higher estimates vs consensus and more attractive valuation (the shares having lost c20% to 998p vs their 6 Feb peak of c1,250p). Since then, shares have come down to c830p. Whilst it makes sense for investors to prefer top line improvements over cost cutting, there is a point where EBIT protection has to be taken into consideration for a value stock (Burberry is trading on only 1.3x 12m fwd EV/Sales excl. leases, c40% discount to history and well below the sector at 4.0x)....