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22 May 2025
FY results: challenging terrain, limited guidance

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FY results: challenging terrain, limited guidance
JD Sports Fashion Plc (JD:LON) | 80.6 0 (-0.1%) | Mkt Cap: 4,137m
- Published:
22 May 2025 -
Author:
Okines Warwick WO | Strauss Mia MS | Barker Nick NB -
Pages:
11 -
Unclear field ahead
JD Sports'' shares fell sharply at yesterday''s full year results, despite delivering profits in line with expectations and confirming that it is comfortable with year-ahead consensus. Weak US trends during Q1 overshadowed more positive results in UK and Europe. We continue to expect like for like sales to decline this year, keeping us watching from the sidelines. We lower our FY Feb-26 adjusted PBT forecast to reflect the weaker US dollar. Neutral.
Q1 sales: in line with expectations, but weaker in the US
Q1 like for like sales (13 weeks to 3 May) were -2.0%, in line with consensus and management expectations. Performance by region was mixed, with North American -5.5%, Europe +0.7%, Asia Pacific -5.5% and UK +0.4%. Management has not yet seen any direct impact on the US consumer from US tariffs, but said that Shoe Palace faced challenges from US immigration policy changes, as it targets a Hispanic consumer. LFLs were +2% at the JD US banner but -17% at Finish Line.
FY Feb 26: comfortable with consensus
Management said that it was comfortable with consensus FY Feb-26 adjusted PBT of GBP 890m, which has fallen from GBP 920m since April, albeit it is not providing guidance due to tariff uncertainty. We cut our forecast to GBP 871m from GBP 916m, largely due to currency.
Forecasts cut, maintain Neutral
On our new forecasts JD Sports trades on CY25 P/E of 7.2x. Although a low multiple, the outlook is fairly challenging, with uncertainty about the strength of the US market and the momentum of its largest brand partner. Our DCF-derived TP remains at GBp 95, with stronger year end net cash offsetting the currency-driven cuts to our forecasts.