
24 Sep 2025
H1 results: more performance needed in H2 (& 15 qs)
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H1 results: more performance needed in H2 (& 15 qs)
JD Sports Fashion Plc (JD:LON) | 93.2 0 0.0% | Mkt Cap: 4,694m
- Published:
24 Sep 2025 -
Author:
Okines Warwick WO | Strauss Mia MS | Barker Nick NB -
Pages:
12 -
H1 in line with guidance, no tariff impact
JD Sports reported H1 results, confirming that US tariffs would have limited impact during the financial year and reiterating its full year profit guidance. This still requires some heavy-lifting in the second half of the year, and we trim our estimates to reflect this risk. We maintain our Neutral rating.
A game of two halves
JD''s H1 Adj PBT of GBP 351m was a touch below our forecast (GBP 357m) and declined sharply year-on-year. Full year guidance implies that H2 profits rise modestly, helped by several factors including the reversal of currencies and Hibbett synergies. We model a little more conservatively, with our Adj PBT of GBP 862m (was GBP 870m) implying a small profit decline in H2.
Consumer outlook
Management expects tariffs only to have a limited financial impact this year, implying that US consumer behaviour had not changed following recent c.2-3% price rises, albeit further rises may come in 2026. It is cautious about the risk of falling employment for its core 16-24yrs customers, yet more encouragingly noted improved UK customer engagement and conversion in recent weeks.
Consumer trends shifting to performance
Management showed that JD''s footwear product mix has shifted towards running (now back over 50% of footwear sales) and that its apparel mix has shifted away from core sports Lifestyle over time, with Performance apparel sales increasing five-fold over the past five years and street fashion growing. JD has shown agility in pivoting to these trends, but while its major brand partner adjusts its Lifestyle ranges we continue to think that these trends point to declining like for like sales in H2.
Maintain Neutral rating, DCF-derived target price of GBp 100 unchanged
We trim estimates by c.1-2% and reiterate our Neutral rating. See inside for 15qs.