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07 Jul 2023
In control of the game

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In control of the game
JD Sports Fashion Plc (JD:LON) | 88.3 0.4 0.5% | Mkt Cap: 4,495m
- Published:
07 Jul 2023 -
Author:
Okines Warwick WO -
Pages:
7 -
Keeping the chain in Spain - acquisition of Iberian minority
JD announced today that it would buy in the minorities of its subsidiary ISRG. This continues it on the journey of simplifying the business and increases the importance of the Continental European market for JD, in addition to its proposed acquisition of Courir France. We factor in both deals to our forecasts, increasing Adj. PBT by 1-3% and EPS by 5-8%. Trading on a CY24 P/E of 9.1x and EV/FCF 7% this remains one of our top picks in the sector.
To buy or sell? Buy.
JD Sports had previously said it might acquire 49.98% minorities of Iberian Sports Retail Group but that it might sell the non-JD retail banners - which include Sprinter and Sport Zone in Iberia and Aktiesport and Perry Sport in the Netherlands. However, today''s announcement confirms that it will acquire the minorities for EUR 500.1m and will retain these other sports banners. We think scale matters in this industry and estimate that the deal value is in line with JD''s current valuation.
Active transfer window - upgrading forecasts
We factor in the ISRG deal and also Courir France, which it will acquire for an enterprise value of EUR 520m in H2 subject to regulatory clearance. We also trim our tax rate expectation by c.1% to 26%. We increase FY Jan-24 EPS by 5% and Jan-25 EPS by 8%. We model JD to have over GBP 1bn of net cash at year end. Management has permission to repurchase up to 10% of its equity (GBP c.720m at the current share price), but we do not factor this in: the cash generation is back-end loaded and the new CFO joins in October, so any buyback seems more likely to be a 2024 event.
King of kicks remains a top pick
The market remains nervous of macro trends, particularly in the US (c.25% of the group), and some would also welcome a share buyback rather than accretion through minorities acquisition. However, in our view management is investing in attractive growth avenues and the stock is not priced for...