A reality check on 2025 for JD Sports After its disappointing Christmas, and after re-evaluating the sector and JD''s prospects as we return from our Retail Tour, we conclude that the road to recovery will be long for JD. Nike, which accounts for around half of JD''s sales, is still in the process of cleaning-up its lifestyle franchises, so we expect a prolonged period of wholesale discounting with no guarantee of a turnaround even in the Fall/Winter season. As a result, we now forecast another year of declining profits for JD, making it difficult to justify a positive outlook, despite its single-digit P/E. We downgrade to Neutral. What went wrong? After our Retail Tour a year ago we concluded that the risk-reward at JD (117p at the time) was attractive, despite poor visibility. Until October it grew LFL sales, per our thesis in Comeback king. Since then, however, the weight of discounted lifestyle products, by Nike and some of its other wholesale partners, has forced JD into a difficult choice: sacrifice margin or lose market share. Apparel trends also seem to have worked against JD, prompting us to revisit the debate about Shein. A downward revision to our estimates We cut our Adj. PBT forecast for Feb-25 from GBP 955m to GBP 917m, which is roughly the midpoint of management''s guidance. We expect the company to provide Feb-26 profit guidance in late March. We cut our Feb-26 profit estimate from GBP 1,070m to 916m, assuming LFLs of -1.5% Into the long grass, downgrade to Neutral We anticipate a particularly challenging first half for JD Sports, as the wholesale channel remains promotional while Nike clears inventory. Although the shares already reflect this expectation, the risk is that a meaningful recovery may not materialise until 2026, making it difficult for the shares to outperform. We cut our DCF-driven target to GBp 95 and downgrade to Neutral.