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14 Oct 2024
More than a Sporting Chance

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More than a Sporting Chance
JD Sports Fashion Plc (JD:LON) | 80.6 0 (-0.1%) | Mkt Cap: 4,137m
- Published:
14 Oct 2024 -
Author:
Okines Warwick WO | Barker Nick NB -
Pages:
11 -
A volatile game
JD Sports shares have fallen sharply since the company reported in early October despite its adj. PBT beat. Weighing on the stock have been the lower profit contribution from Hibbett, negative FX effects, no comment on current trading, and sentiment around Nike''s Q1 release. Cons. for FY Feb-26 looks a little ambitious, in our view, which is an additional hurdle for the stock. Yet on our own profit forecasts, which are broadly unchanged (first-time inclusion of Hibbett offset by neg. FX and higher minority leakage), we see significant re-rating potential, and maintain our Outperform rating.
H1 results - an adj. PBT beat
In early October, JD Sports'' H1 group adj. PBT of GBP 406m beat consensus expectations of GBP 385m, even excluding the GBP 13m contribution from Hibbett. The company did not publish current trading for August/September - not a big deal, in our view, as it reports quarterly (Q3 on 21 Nov).
FY Feb-25 guidance - currency drag offsetting Hibbett
Management reiterated its FY Feb-25 adj. PBT guidance range of GBP 955-1,035m, but this now includes Hibbett adj. PBT of GBP 25m - less than expected - and a further GBP c.10m drag from currency (a full year GBP c.26m drag). We raise our forecast from GBP 965m to GBP 980m.
FY Feb-26 outlook - consensus may have to trim
There''s still peak trading ahead but inside we turn our attention to the profit bridge for FY Feb-26. Consensus adj. PBT of GBP 1,116.5m appears a little ambitious, and we are 3% lower at GBP 1,081m. We assume that Hibbett generates EBIT of GBP 82m, or GBP 32m after finance costs.
Reiterate Outperform
Our DCF-derived TP remains at GBp 170 after integrating the Hibbett acquisition. The stock (at 128p) trades on CY25 P/E c.9x, too low in our view and we reiterate our Outperform.