
27 Aug 2025
Q2 sales first take: good enough
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Q2 sales first take: good enough
JD Sports Fashion Plc (JD:LON) | 89.0 0.4 0.5% | Mkt Cap: 4,502m
- Published:
27 Aug 2025 -
Author:
Okines Warwick WO -
Pages:
9 -
Q2 sales: what happened?
Q2 (to 2 August) organic sales growth of +2.2% was ahead of a fairly thin Bloomberg consensus, while like-for-like sales growth of -3.0% was in line with company-compiled expectations. US sales were helped by the timing of product launches, as previously flagged, with UK/Europe much softer as it lapped the Euro 2024 soccer championships. Management reiterates that it is comfortable with full year consensus adjusted PBT expectations (company-compiled GBP 885m) but this remains before any tariff impacts, which would be mostly indirect. It announces a new GBP 100m share buyback programme. It says that it sees a ''resilient consumer'' in general, ''albeit very selective on their purchases''.
BNPP Exane View: underwhelming sales but maintained guidance and new buyback
Organic growth of +2.2% was a bit better than expectations, while LFLs of -3% for the group and the JD banner were a touch lower than Bloomberg consensus but in line with company-compiled expectations. Maintaining profit guidance, albeit with the caveat that it has not assumed indirect tariff impacts, and announcing a new share buyback, should be good enough for the stock today.
Likely direction of consensus
We expect full year consensus profits to be unchanged. Company-compiled consensus FY Feb-26 adjusted PBT is GBP 885m (albeit Bloomberg shows GBP 865m) and management has reiterated that it is comfortable with this level. It expects H2 to represent 60% of full year profits, which include a GBP 14m non-cash currency charge in the first half.
Anticipated market reaction
JD Sports shares are -2% year to date compared with the FTSE350 Retail Sector +7%, although the shares are +12% in the past three months. Bulls will likely point to the new share buyback and maintained full year profit guidance, as well as a solid US performance; bears will point to this profit guidance excluding tariffs, and an underwhelming LFL sales performance. We expect the share buyback to...