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21 Nov 2024
Q3 sales: off the call

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Q3 sales: off the call
JD Sports Fashion Plc (JD:LON) | 87.6 5.4 7.6% | Mkt Cap: 4,463m
- Published:
21 Nov 2024 -
Author:
Okines Warwick WO -
Pages:
9 -
Q3 sales call summary
Management commented on the ''mixed'' performance over the period, with a strong back-to-school followed swiftly by a softer October. Trading was volatile with a consumer that is increasingly event-driven. Key discussion points on the call included the softer October trading, the promotional environment, and the banner dynamics. Management remains confident that it can deliver +2% LFLs over Q4, on a soft comp base of -1.6%, to meet the lower end of its guided FY Feb-25 Adj. PBT range of GBP 955-1,035m.
Where do the shares go from here?
We had thought that the market was braced for news of softer trading in October. Clearly this wasn''t the case with JD shares -14% as we write (97p), a fairly brutal response to a full year c.3% consensus profit downgrade. Delivering peak trading of c.+2% LFL is key, and comments by Nike at its Q2 earnings in December will also be important.
Next news
JD Sports is scheduled to report a Q4 Trading statement on 14 January 2025.
Results recap
JD SPORTS Q3 sales first take: at the lower end
Key takeaways from the call
. October trading: A strong back-to-school in September was followed by what management referred to as a ''much softer'' October due to the US election, warmer weather, and lower consumer confidence. Third party data suggests that the US general merchandise market swung high single digit negative in the 2 weeks before the election, and warm weather led to a +50% increase in the sales of t-shirts in some weeks. Elsewhere, the UK budget also dented consumer confidence whilst Europe performed better because the consumer lacked these political distractions. In addition, management noted that the consumer has become increasingly event and newness driven, and October lacked both of these. There were fewer releases from Jordan and Nike over the same month as the company tries to rebuild brand heat. Going forward, it is beginning to annualise the slower cadence of these Jordan drops.
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