Q4 sales: what happened? JD Sports'' Q4 sales missed expectations due to weak markets in UK/US. Group LFL sales in the 9 weeks across November-December were -1.5% albeit these were +1.5% during December. Regionally, the UK and North America remained the more challenging markets. It chose not to participate in promotions, protecting gross margins which increased year-on-year. Management guides full year Feb-25 Group Adj. PBT to GBP 915-935m compared with previous guidance of around GBP 955m, implying a c.4% consensus downgrade at the mid-point of the range. BNPP Exane View: tough environment unsurprising, but disappointing, and focus on FY Feb-26 In late-November management had said that its full year guidance was based on Q4 LFLs of +2% and today reports -1.5%, with presumably far less of a positive upswing in December than it had banked on. We forecast +1.9% and there was only a thin Visible Alpha consensus. JD kept discipline in a promotional environment to protect gross margins, as it had in Q3. Even if the market was anticipating some consensus profit drift, particularly after Nike''s results, the extent of the sales miss and a ''cautious view of the new financial year'' is likely to send the shares down sharply today. Likely direction of consensus FY Feb-25 Group Adj. PBT consensus sits at GBP 964m, per Visible Alpha, so the new range GBP 915-935m implies a consensus cut of 4% at the mid-point. Note this new range includes Courir profits of GBP 7m but also a GBP 2m drag from currency and GBP 6m further IFRS-16 related accounting costs from Hibbett. Focus will also be on potential cuts to FY Feb-26 Adj. PBT, where consensus currently sits at GBP 1,088m. We think consensus may fall below GBP 1bn. Anticipated market reaction JD Sports shares were -42% in 2024 (versus FTSE 350 Retail Index -6%) albeit have performed solidly in January. There''s not much for the bulls other than a better exit rate, whereas bears will point to continued...