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08 Jul 2020
Tales from the un-locker room (and 15 questions for management)

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Tales from the un-locker room (and 15 questions for management)
JD Sports Fashion Plc (JD:LON) | 87.6 5.4 7.6% | Mkt Cap: 4,463m
- Published:
08 Jul 2020 -
Author:
Charlie Muir-Sands -
Pages:
8 -
Encouraging early trading post end to lockdown
Inline profits for FY Jan-20 are largely an irrelevance at this stage, though over GBP100m beat to our and consensus'' expectations was a notable positive. Of more significance, online demand during lockdown, and combined demand since stores have re-opened are ahead of our and management''s prior expectations. Acknowledging the risk that trends could soften as pent-up demand fades, we see room for more optimism. We increase FY Jan-21 PBT to GBP92m (from GBP40m) and outer year EPS by c.3%. On revised forecasts for FY22 we sit 10-15% ahead of consensus and, increasing our DCF-based TP to 790p, we reiterate our Outperform rating.
Earnings in line, cash beats
Full year LFL sales rose 12% in the main Sports Fashion division, and 9% at Finish Line (which annualised consolidation in 2H), implying strong sales growth was sustained into the second half. Management confirmed momentum carried on in the first few weeks of FY21 prior to lockdown. Margin performance was notably strong in the US, rising 380bps yoy in the second half though we still see 200bps further mid-term opportunity. Losses increased to GBP16m in the Outdoor division, but following the recent pre-pack administration we see scope for major rent-based cost reduction.
Current trading encouraging, cost control in focus
Online (c.20% mix) rose ''triple digit'' during lockdown and since reopening stores have traded ahead of management expectations. Overall for H1 (to end July) we now forecast Sports Fashion LFL down 29% (was -38%). Together with support from brands to delay intake, inventory is reported relatively clean so we now anticipate lesser gross margin pressure too. JD is also actively seeking to lower rents and we think is well placed to do so. It has one of the shortest remaining lease commitments of our UK coverage, as explored in our recent sector Disruption report.
JD remains a top pick - TP increased to 790p
With net cash beating...