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  • 14 Sep 2021

The Bison charges (and 15 questions)


JD Sports Fashion Plc (JD:LON) | 87.6 5.4 7.6% | Mkt Cap: 4,463m


  • BNP Paribas Exane
    • Okines Warwick WO | Muir-Sands Charlie CMS

    • 9 pages


 

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The Bison charges (and 15 questions)


JD Sports Fashion Plc (JD:LON) | 87.6 5.4 7.6% | Mkt Cap: 4,463m


  • Published: 14 Sep 2021
  • Author: Okines Warwick WO | Muir-Sands Charlie CMS
  • Pages: 9
  • BNP Paribas Exane


Strong US momentum in particular drives H1 beat and 25-40% FY upgrades JD Sports reported very strong 1H22 results: adj PBT of GBP440m was well ahead of consensus'' GBP206m and over 3x that achieved two years ago (pre-pandemic), led by strength in both existing and newly acquired US operations. As such JD is rapidly delivering on our prior ''bull'' case for this important market, as we recently explored in detail in Bison versus Grizzly. Management also raised full year guidance, albeit by less than the H1 beat with what appear to be potentially conservative 2H assumptions. We raise EPS forecasts c.40% for FY Jan-22 and c.25% for outer years and our DCF-based target increases to 1,145p from 980p. Trading on 22x CY22 PE, we are reluctant to chase the shares here and we retain our Neutral rating. LFL sales 20% higher than pre-pandemic levels... We estimate c.17% MandA contribution to H1 sales so, given minimal net space contribution and a small net FX drag, implied LFL sales were up 35% on a one-year basis and c.25% versus 1H20 on our estimates. This includes 28% yoy growth in Finish Line/ US JD despite limited lockdown restrictions compared to UK and Europe regions in the prior year, albeit boosted by fiscal stimulus. ...with US PBT margin reaching 18% USA accounted for 55% of total group profits in H1, driven by strong demand and c.410bps increase in gross margin, together with initial contribution of DTLR and Shoe Palace. This was significantly aided by fiscal stimulus but nevertheless also points to rapid company improvement vs North American rivals. Notably, despite store closures for the first c.10 weeks of the year, UK profitability also exceeded pre-pandemic levels. However, profits in continental Europe were still GBP46m below 1H20 levels highlighting further recovery opportunity in FY Jan-23. Upgrading adj PBT to GBP817m and target price to 1,145p Management guided to ''at least GBP750m'' adj PBT for the full year, which appears is...

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