
19 Sep 2025
First Take: JD Sports Fashion - 1H26 results preview – 24th September
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First Take: JD Sports Fashion - 1H26 results preview – 24th September
JD Sports Fashion Plc (JD:LON) | 102 1.1 1.1% | Mkt Cap: 5,178m
- Published:
19 Sep 2025 -
Author:
Kate Calvert -
Pages:
4 -
No surprises expected from 1H results as much has already been pre-reported
JD Sports already pre-reported 1H sales at the end of August. Group organic sales grew +2.6% with LFL sales down 2.5%. The US saw an improvement in sales trend Q2-on-Q1 after a shift in the product launch schedule from Q1 to Q2 and better ranges generally. The UK and European divisions reported a deterioration in sales trend QoQ as both were up against tough comps from last year’s Euro 2024 tournament. Underlying 1H gross margin (excluding Hibbett & Courir acquisitions) is expected to be down 0.4%, driven by online price investment with Group gross margin including acquisition down 0.6bps. We forecast an 8.4% decline in 1H PBT to £371m (Visible Alpha consensus £374m). Management has guided on 1H profit phasing accounting for c40% of FY profits.
Focus will be on 1) Outlook, where we expect management to remain cautious given economic & geopolitical backdrop; 2) Any early signs of more positive benefits to the business and wider industry from Nike’s reset and Wholesale channel support; 3) Progress on delivering the targeted £30m of cost savings in FY26 and ramp up of its new RDCs at Heerlen (European) & Morgan Hill (US); 4) Progress on delivering two thirds of the $25m integration synergies from the Hibbett acquisition in FY26; 5) Update on the recent Courir acquisition; 6) update on whether store investment plans are on track, with c.150 new stores, c.100 conversions/relocations and c.50 closures planned in FY26.
No change to FY26 guidance likely given economic uncertainty
Management reiterated in August that pre any tariff impact, 1H trading was in-line with current market expectations which was then for FY26 PBT & adjusting items of £885m, range of £852m-£915m. Current company-compiled consensus is £878m (INVe £914m). A further update on tariffs is expected, though the direct impact is minimal on JD Group. The unknown remains how the consumer will respond to any price increases that the brands will put through.
Valuation suggests short term expectations are low with longer term opportunities being ignored
No more ‘negative news’ will probably be taken as ‘good news’ by the market given JD’s current valuation (CY26E PE 6.9x) suggests short term expectations are low. This is not surprising given uncertainty over how higher tariffs may impact US consumer behaviour and the general economic slowdown in all its key markets. Any benefits from NIKE’s reset are likely to be next year’s story, with potential for a profit recovery to start in FY27 helped by management’s current focus on driving better efficiency and integrating its recent acquisitions. JD is highly cash generative, with a leading global market position, and we believe it has attractive long-term US and European growth opportunities which are being overlooked.