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21 May 2025
First Take: JD Sports Fashion - FY25 results - No surprises

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First Take: JD Sports Fashion - FY25 results - No surprises
JD Sports Fashion Plc (JD:LON) | 80.6 0 (-0.1%) | Mkt Cap: 4,137m
- Published:
21 May 2025 -
Author:
Kate Calvert -
Pages:
4 -
FY25 results contain no surprises
JD Sports has reported a 4% decline in adjusted FY25 PBT to £923m (INVe £915.6m), in-line with its guidance range £915m-£935m. The total proposed dividend is up 11.1% to 1.00p. The weak performance reflected ongoing challenging market conditions in both the UK (31% of FY25 Group EBIT) & US (45% of FY25E Group EBIT) and heavy discounting/lack of innovation from NIKE (N/R), which has impacted the growth of the overall athleisure market. By region, UK EBIT fell 24%, with US up 18% and Europe up 22%
FY26 guidance on a pre tariff/FX basis unchanged. Q126 trading - US weakness will catch eye
Q1 trading remains subdued. UK, US and Europe LFL sales up 0.4% (Q4 -1.2%), -5.5% (Q4 -1.5%) and +0.7% (Q4 +3.5%) respectively. The US weakness will catch the eye, but JD has not joined in market discounting so the profit impact is less. There have been some delays in NIKE launches into Q2, according to management.
Management guidance is unchanged and they had guided for FY26 adjusted PBT to be in-line with company-compiled consensus then of £920m (current consensus £890m; INVe £913.8m). This implies another year of no growth despite the benefit of acquisitions. Group revenues are expected to grow, helped by the Hibbett & Courir acquisitions (adding c.10% to sales YoY), 4% new space contribution and negative LFLs. Management plans to add c.150 new stores and c.100 conversions + relocations in the year, with c.50 closures, mainly in Eastern Europe.
Difficult to see the shares performing short term, but long-term growth opportunities are overlooked
The shares are up 24%/down 3% over 1mth/YTD respectively, responding more positively to the strategy update when a share buyback was announced, lower capex as a % of sales over time, and focus on optimising returns from the existing business. Valuation (CY26E PE c.7.2x) still suggests a short-term credibility issue. We believe JD’s leading global market position and attractive long-term US and European growth opportunities are being overlooked. However, it is difficult to see JD Sports’ profits recovering near term. NIKE’s reset plans are likely to impact the industry for the remainder of FY26. President Trump’s proposed tariffs may not help NIKE’s reset from a US perspective either.