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11 May 2023
First Take: JD Sports Fashion - New CFO/Preview FY23 results

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First Take: JD Sports Fashion - New CFO/Preview FY23 results
JD Sports Fashion Plc (JD:LON) | 80.6 0 (-0.1%) | Mkt Cap: 4,137m
- Published:
11 May 2023 -
Author:
Ben Hunt, CFA | Kate Calvert -
Pages:
4 -
Dominic Platt announced as new CFO
JD Sports has announced that Dominic Platt will take over as CFO from Neil Greenhalgh, who announced last October that he was leaving. Dominic has worked with Regis Schultz (CEO) previously at Darty, the French electrical retailer. Dominic is very experienced with a varied background in retail, global telecoms and financial services. Most recently, he was CFO of BGL Group, owner of Comparethemarket & a leading digital distributor of financial services. He is also a NED at N Brown Group.
Next news: FY23 results due 17th May
No surprises are expected from JD’s FY23 results as updated guidance was given back in January that IFRS16 PBT would be at the top end of the then consensus range of £933m to £985m. We forecast 3% growth in PBT to £980m. 2H performance was stronger than 1H, helped by better stock availability, particularly in the US.
We expect management to confirm FY24 guidance for ‘PBT just over £1bn’ (INVe £1,053m) based on a US$/£1.22 FX rate. Sterling has strengthened slightly since (spot $1.26) which would weight marginally on translated US profits, but we believe guidance could prove conservative given underlying momentum. Our FY24E forecast is based on flat UK EBIT YoY & 10% US EBIT growth driven by Finish Line conversions, higher apparel mix and Shoe Zone/DTLR growth. Focus will be on current trading to see how resilient the UK has been and if the US economic slowdown has had any impact. Anecdotal comments from others suggests JD is likely to have had a solid start to the year. We are also looking for an update on progress in stepping up the rate of new opening and how FY24’s opening programme, which is expected to be back ended, is looking..
Undemanding valuation (CY24E PE 11.2x) as we believe the Group is capable of delivering double-digit growth p.a
Recently appointed CEO, Mr Schultz, spelt out the JD brand’s 5-year growth opportunity at February’s capital markets event and set out financial targets (key ones are double-digit revenue growth/double-digit PBT margin), which in our view are achievable. A material step-up in JD new store openings to 250-350 units p.a was announced, which, if achieved, could equate to JD brand revenue CAGR of low/mid-teens over the five-year period. This is not reflected in the current valuation in our view.