NIKE missed on Q4 and reduced FY25 guidance last night NIKE reported flat Q4 (end May) constant currency revenues of $12.6bn (reported basis down 2%) versus FactSet consensus of $12.86bn. Performance product performed strongly, but this was more than offset by double-digit declines in Lifestyle. In Q4, Nike Direct was down 7%. Nike Stores were down 2%, and Nike Digital was down 10%, with Wholesale growing 8%. In North America, Q4 revenue declined by 1%. Nike Direct was down 9%, with Nike Digital down 11% and Nike Stores down 5%. Wholesale grew 6% due to accelerated shipping timing from Q1 of Fiscal ‘25. In EMEA, Q4 revenue grew 1%. Nike Direct was down 8%, as Nike Stores grew 1% and Nike Digital declined 14%. Wholesale grew by 7%. NIKE also cut FY25 guidance, reflecting an acceleration in mix change, a soft China, and more volatile macro generally. It now guides to FY25 revenues down mid-single digit, with 1H down high single-digit (previously 1H down low single-digit). Q1 revenues are guided to be down 10%. Management is looking for meaningful sequential improvement in quarterly performance as the year progresses and it scales newness in the range. As the brand reset continues, NIKE is focused in FY25 on sharpening its focus on sport, accelerating its innovation, bolder storytelling, and elevating the entire marketplace. Negative read-across to JD; continued weak NIKE performance likely to weigh on sentiment towards JD Key points we would pull out from JD’s perspective is that (1) NIKE’s Wholesale performance was stronger than its DTC, and (2) NIKE is trying to accelerate its innovation and product mix changes, which is a factor behind NIKE’s reduced FY guidance. NIKE’s warning is likely to raise concern over the achievability of JD’s FY25 guidance (profit split will be more 2H weighted than usual anyway), with uncertainty over how long NIKE’s underperformance may remain a drag, and the short-term profit contribution from the proposed Hibbett acquisition given its higher NIKE exposure (69% of FY23 sales). We should have a clearer view on NIKE’s strategy towards the end of the current calendar year. Next news from JD – Q2 update mid-August. JD’s management reconfirmed at the end of May its FY25 guidance for an adjusted PBT range of £900m-£980m pre-accounting changes (non-cash amortisation of acquired intangibles to be taken below the PBT line) and the Courir/Hibbett acquisitions. The top end was based on an improvement in macro and innovation from its key partners. We are towards the bottom end. Note we have not republished forecasts post FY24 results (end May) as JD is changing its segmental reporting. We are waiting for the company to provide full historics and the impact of accounting changes on the new segmentations.